Section 5.92.112. Intensive Management Plans II.

	(a)  Plans established. Intensive management plans for the following areas are established in this section:  
		(1) Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area;  
		(2) Unimak Wolf Management Area.  
	(b)  Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area. Notwithstanding any other provisions in this title, and based on the following information contained in this subsection, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program on the Alaska Peninsula in Unit 9(D):   
		(1) the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area is established to increase the Southern Alaska Peninsula Caribou Herd (SAPCH) on the mainland portion of Unit 9(D) to aid in achieving intensive management objectives; the control area includes all drainages of the Alaska Peninsula west of a line from the southernmost head of Port Moller Bay to the head of American Bay, encompassing approximately 3,819 square miles;  
		(2) the discussion of wildlife populations and human use information is as follows:  
			(A) SAPCH population and human use information is as follows:  
				(i) the SAPCH was estimated to contain over 10,000 caribou in 1983; following a population decline to 1,500 caribou in the 1990s, the SAPCH increased to 4,200 caribou by 2002 before declining again to 600 caribou by 2007; since 2007, the SAPCH has increased following the removal of wolves from the control area in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area during the 2008 - 2010 calving seasons; a post-calving count of the SAPCH in 2009 estimated the herd size at 800 caribou;  
				(ii) nutritional limitations are not currently implicated as a factor affecting the current status of the SAPCH;  
				(iii) 79 percent of cows that were 24 months of age or older exhibited signs of pregnancy in 2007 based on a random sample of 235 adults observed during an aerial survey; a similar pregnancy rate was observed in caribou marked with radio collars in 2007; pregnancy rates remained high based on similar surveys in 2008 - 2010; pregnancy rates were 86 percent in 2008, 90 percent in 2009, and 91 percent in 2010;  
				(iv) calf survival to one month of age was estimated to be less than one percent in 2007 based on 23 radio collared cows that exhibited signs of pregnancy; no calves were observed in the SAPCH during the post-calving count despite repeated efforts to find calves in caribou groups and locating 85 percent of the estimated total population; calf survival to one month of age increased significantly following the removal of wolves from the control area in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area during the 2008 - 2010 calving seasons; calf survival to one month of age was 57 percent in 2008, 71 percent in 2009, and 65 percent in 2010;  
				(v) research into calf mortality in the SAPCH conducted in 1999 documented a survival rate during the first two months of life to be 34 percent and survival during the first year of life to be 31 percent; cause of death during the first two weeks of life was primarily attributed to wolves and brown bears; calf mortality studies conducted in 2008 - 2010 during a period of wolf removal from the control area of the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area indicate that predation by wolves and brown bears remain the primary cause of death for calves in the SAPCH;  
				(vi) October calf-to-cow ratios declined annually since 2002, averaging 6.4 calves per 100 cows during the period of 2002 - 2007 (range 0.5 - 16); calf-to-cow ratios were one calf per 100 cows in 2006 and 0.5 calves per 100 cows in 2007; since 2007, calf-to-cow ratios have increased following the removal of wolves from the control area in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area during the 2008 - 2010 calving seasons; calf-to-cow ratios were 39 calves per 100 cows in 2008, 43 calves per 100 cows in 2009, and 47 calves per 100 cows in 2010;  
				(vii) bull-to-cow ratios declined to 15 bulls per 100 cows by 2007; the bull-to-cow ratio was expected to continue to decline based on the lack of calf recruitment in 2006 and 2007; the bull-to-cow ratio reached a low of 10 bulls per 100 cows in 2008; since 2008 the bull-to-cow ratio has increased due to the increased calf recruitment that resulted  from the removal of wolves from the control area of the Southern Alaska  Peninsula Predation Management Area during the 2008 - 2010 calving seasons; the bull-to-cow ratios were 21 bulls per 100 cows in 2009 and 28 bulls per 100 cows in 2010;  
				(viii) the harvestable surplus was estimated to be 0 caribou from 2007 - 2010 based on chronic poor calf recruitment that occurred from 2003 - 2010 and reduced bull-to-cow ratios;  
				(ix) the intensive management population objective established by the board for the SAPCH is 1,500 - 4,000 caribou; the intensive management harvest objective is 150 - 200 caribou annually;  
				(x) reported human harvest peaked at 388 caribou in 1984; estimates of unreported harvest suggest that harvest may have exceeded 1,000 caribou annually during the 1980s; human harvest remained low during the brief recovery following an extended period of closures from 1993 - 1998; reported human harvest between 1998 and 2007 were not an important factor in the recent decline; caribou hunting was closed from 2007 - 2010 to promote population recovery;  
			(B) the predator population and human use information is as follows:  
				(i) wolves are a major predator of caribou on the Alaska Peninsula;  
				(ii) while no current aerial population survey data are available for the wolf population in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area, recent anecdotal evidence obtained from pilots and local residents indicates that wolves remain abundant in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area;  
				(iii) in 2008, the wolf population in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area was estimated at 60 - 80 wolves in 9 - 13 packs based on habitat type and prey base;  
				(iv) research into the causes of caribou calf mortality on the Alaska Peninsula indicates that wolves are responsible for 45 percent of the calf deaths during the first two weeks of a life; based on the reduced calf mortality that occurred as a result of the removal of wolves from the control area of the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area during the 2008 - 2010 calving seasons, it can be inferred that wolf predation accounted for 94 percent of caribou calf deaths in the SAPCH before wolf removals;  
				(v) an average of three wolves (range of 0 - 6 wolves) were harvested annually in Unit 9(D) between 2000 and 2006; during the period of wolf removal from 2007 - 2009, an average of seven wolves were harvested annually by the public in Unit 9(D); predation management activities in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Management Area resulted in the removal of an additional 28 wolves in June 2008, eight wolves in June 2009, and two wolves in June 2010; the combined take of wolves averaged 19 - 25 percent of the pre-wolf-removal population estimate and is considered a sustainable rate of human-caused wolf mortality for a wolf population;  
				(vi) the boundaries of the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area correspond to the current and historic range of the SAPCH;  
				(vii) brown bears are important predators of caribou on the Alaska Peninsula; while brown bears have been known to kill adult caribou opportunistically, brown bears are effective predators of calves during the first 10 days of life;  
				(viii) brown bears are abundant throughout the Alaska Peninsula; spring brown bear density was estimated at 170 bears per 1,000 square kilometers in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area in May 2002;  
				(ix) research into the causes of caribou calf mortality indicates that brown bears are typically responsible for 30 percent of the calf deaths on the Alaska Peninsula during the first two weeks of life;  
		(3) predator and prey population levels and objectives and the basis for those objectives are as follows:  
			(A) the intensive management population objective established by the board for the SAPCH is 1,500 - 4,000 caribou; the intensive management harvest objective is 150 - 200 caribou annually; intensive management objectives were established by the board based on historic information regarding population numbers, habitat limitations, human use, and sustainable harvests; the estimated SAPCH population in July 2007 was 600 caribou; no human harvest was authorized during the 2007 - 2010 regulatory years;  
			(B) before May 20, 2008, wolf population objectives for Unit 9 were to maintain a wolf population that can sustain a three-year-annual harvest of 50 wolves;  
			(C) brown bear population objectives in Unit 9 are to maintain a high density bear population with a sex and age structure that can sustain a harvest composed of 60 percent males, with 50 males eight years of age or older during combined fall and spring seasons;  
		(4) justification, objectives, and thresholds for the predator management implementation plan are as follows:  
			(A) justification for the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area is based on the board decision to designate the SAPCH as being important for providing high levels of human consumptive use; the board established the objectives for population size and annual sustained harvest of caribou in Unit 9(D) consistent with multiple use and principles of sound conservation and management of habitat and all wildlife species in the area;   
			(B) the objective of the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Plan is to halt the population decline of the SAPCH and to achieve a population sex and age structure that will sustain the population; because 40 percent of the land area in Unit 9(D) is federal land and federal regulations restrict typical control methods, the program will not affect all wolves in Unit 9(D); the goal of this program is to remove all wolves from a focus area that will be defined annually by the department based on the distribution of caribou calving;  
			(C) the commissioner may initiate the reduction of wolf numbers in a predation management area on the Alaska Peninsula according to the following thresholds:  
				(i) the caribou population is below intensive management objectives established by the board and harvest objectives are not being met;  
				(ii) adult nutrition is not considered the primary factor limiting caribou population growth; and   
				(iii) calf recruitment is the most important factor limiting population growth and calf survival during the first four weeks of life is less than 50 percent;  
			(D) the commissioner may continue to reduce wolf numbers in predation management areas on the Alaska Peninsula until the following thresholds are met without the benefit of wolf control:  
				(i) the bu1l-to-cow ratio can be sustained within management objectives and the fall ca1f-to-cow ratios can be sustained above 20 calves per 100 cows;  
				(ii) the population can grow at a sustained rate of five percent annually or the population objective is met; or  
				(iii) harvest objectives are met;  
			(E) the wolf population objective for the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area is to annually remove all wolves from caribou calving areas within Unit 9(D); because wolves will not be removed from all lands within the Southern Alaska Peninsula Management Area and because logistic limitations limit public access to the Southern Alaska Peninsula Management Area and minimize public take of wolves, the majority of wolves in Unit 9(D) will not be affected by the management activities authorized in this plan and the wolf population in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Management Area will be conserved;  
			(F) the department will utilize radio-telemetry, wolf surveys, or a combination of those methods to ensure that a sustainable wolf population persists outside of active treatment areas on the Alaska Peninsula;  
			(G) reduction of predators by humans is necessary to stop the caribou population decline and promote recovery;   
			(H) reduction of wolf numbers in control areas defined by the seasonal distribution of caribou is expected to stop the caribou population decline;  
			(I) reduction of bear numbers remains unlikely due to the high density of brown bears in Unit 9(D), logistical limitations, and competing management priorities;   
		(5) the authorized methods and means used to take wolves are as follows:  
			(A) hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in treatment areas during the term of the management program may occur as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations set out elsewhere in this title, including the use of motorized vehicles as provided in 5 AAC 92.080; the board finds that the opportunity to harvest the amount necessary for subsistence will continue to be provided by allowing ongoing hunting and trapping of wolves;  
			(B) the commissioner may issue public aerial shooting permits, public land and shoot permits, allow agents of the state to conduct aerial shooting, or allow department employees to conduct aerial shooting as a method of wolf removal under AS 16.05.783, including the use of any type of aircraft;  
			(C) the commissioner may authorize the use of state employees or state-owned or charter equipment, including helicopters, as a method of wolf removal under AS 16.05.783;  
		(6) the anticipated time frame and schedule for update and reevaluation are as follows:   
			(A) through June 30, 2017, the commissioner may reduce the wolf populations in the Southern Alaska Peninsula Predation Management Area;  
			(B) annually the department shall, to the extent practicable, provide to the board at the board's spring meeting a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of caribou, wolf, and brown bear populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary to achieve the objectives of the plan;  
		(7) other specifications that the board considers necessary:  
			(A) the commissioner shall suspend wolf control activities  
				(i) when prey population management objectives are obtained;  
				(ii) when predation management objectives are met; or  
				(iii) upon expiration of the period during which the commissioner is authorized to reduce predator numbers in the predator control plan area;  
			(B) the commissioner shall annually close wolf hunting and trapping seasons as appropriate to ensure that the minimum wolf population objectives are met.  
	(c)  Unimak Wolf Management Area. Notwithstanding any other provisions in this title, and based on the following information contained in this subsection, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program on Unimak Island in Unit 10:  
		(1) the Unimak Wolf Management Area is established to reverse the population decline and facilitate population growth of the Unimak caribou herd (UCH) on Unimak Island in Unit 10; the UCH has been identified as an important resource for subsistence and other uses; the Unimak Wolf Management Area includes all of Unimak Island, encompassing approximately 1,571 square miles; active control will be confined to an area that is approximately 800 square miles and includes 50 percent of the lands within the management area;  
		(2) the discussion of wildlife populations and human use information is as follows:  
			(A) the UCH population information is as follows:  
				(i)  the UCH has occupied Unimak Island throughout recorded history and was estimated at 5,000 caribou in 1975; the UCH population size was estimated to include 1,200 caribou in 2002 before entering a population decline; the most recent estimate of herd size was 400 caribou based on surveys conducted by Izembek National Wildlife Refuge staff in February 2010; research studies indicate that the UCH is a unique population that does not have significant interchange with adjacent caribou populations;  
				(ii) the cause of the UCH population decline was not investigated initially; however, low caribou calf survival is the primary cause of the decline currently;  
				(iii) calf ratios in October averaged 5.5 calves per 100 cows during the period of 2005 - 2009 (range 3  - 7 calves);  
				(iv) bull ratios declined from 45 bulls per 100 cows to 5 bulls per 100 cows during the period of 2005 - 2009; the decreased bull ratio is attributed to the lack of calf recruitment and cannot be explained by caribou harvests;  
				(v) pregnancy rates of cows that were 24 months of age or older decreased from 85 percent in 2008 (n=113) to 68 percent in 2009 (n=40); the decreased pregnancy rate is attributed to the inability of some reproductive females to find mates for breeding, which is caused by the low bull ratio;  
				(vi) adult female caribou in the UCH have excellent body condition based on a study conducted in 2009; nutrition and range conditions are not limiting reproduction or caribou survival;  
				(vii) harvestable surplus is estimated to be 0 caribou based on chronic poor calf recruitment and reduced bull ratio;  
				(viii) state and federal caribou hunts were closed in 2009 due to the continued population decline and low calf recruitment; the closure remains in place as of 2010;  
			(B) the predator population and human use information is as follows:  
				(i) wolves are a major predator of caribou on Unimak Island;  
				(ii) research into the causes of caribou calf mortality indicates that wolf predation is a major cause of caribou calf deaths during the first two weeks of life and wolves continue to be a major predator throughout the year; wolf predation was the primary cause of calf deaths in the adjacent Southern Alaska Peninsula caribou herd in Unit 9(D); the removal of 20 adult wolves from caribou calving grounds in Unit 9(D) during two years of a wolf predation management program increased caribou calf survival from one percent to 71 percent;  
				(iii) wolf density on the Alaska Peninsula is estimated at seven wolves per 1,000 square kilometers; wolf densities in the Unimak Wolf Management Area is thought to be similar based on observations made by biologists during caribou surveys; anecdotal evidence obtained from pilots, hunters, and local residents indicates that wolves are abundant throughout the area;  
				(iv) no wolf surveys have been conducted in the Unimak Wolf Management Area; research into the movement of wolves documented the movement of a wolf from the mainland to Unimak Island; wolves are frequently observed in the UCH calving ground; the Unimak Wolf Management Area is thought to include 15 - 30 wolves in two to five packs based on ungulate biomass and densities of nearby populations;  
				(v) an average of two wolves (range of 0 - 4 wolves) have been harvested annually in the Unimak Wolf Management Area;  
				(vi) brown bears are considered to be an important predator of caribou on the Alaska Peninsula and on Unimak Island; while brown bears have been known to kill adult caribou opportunistically, brown bears are regarded as an effective predator of calves during the first 10 days of life;  
				(vii) research into the causes of caribou calf mortality indicates that brown bears can be an important predator of caribou calves during the first two weeks of life; brown bear predation was a less important cause of caribou calf mortality than wolf predation in the adjacent Northern Alaska Peninsula caribou herd in Units 9(C) and 9(E) and Southern Alaska Peninsula caribou herd in Unit 9(D), which have similar ecosystems;  
				(viii) brown bears are considered abundant on Unimak Island; the brown bear density is 100 bears per 1,000 square kilometers in the Unimak Wolf Management Area;  
				(ix) brown bear harvests in the Unimak Wolf Management Area have averaged 10 brown bear annually from 2000 - 2008;  
		(3) predator and prey population levels and objectives and the basis for those objectives are as follows:  
			(A) the management population objective for the UCH is to maintain a population of 1,000 caribou with a bull ratio of at least 35 bulls: 100 cows; the amount necessary for subsistence is 100 - 150 caribou annually and includes caribou harvested from the Southern Alaska Peninsula caribou herd in Unit 9(D); the caribou harvest objective required to meet the amount necessary for subsistence has not been met for 18 years; management objectives were established based on historic information regarding population numbers, habitat limitations, human use, and sustainable harvests; hunting seasons for the UCH were closed in March 2009; the UCH population contained a minimum of 400 caribou in February 2010;  
			(B) the wolf population objective for Unimak Island is to maintain a population of 8 - 15 wolves;  
			(C) the brown bear population objective for Unit 10 is to maintain a high density bear population with a sex and age structure that can sustain a harvest composed of at least 60 percent males; the brown bear population objective for Unit 10 is currently being met;  
		(4) justification, objectives, and thresholds for the predator management implementation plan are as follows:  
			(A) justification for the Unimak Wolf Management Area is based on the board's recognition of the UCH as being important for providing caribou for human consumptive use including subsistence; the board established objectives for population size and composition in Unit 10 consistent with multiple use and principles of sound conservation and management of habitat and all wildlife species in the area;  
			(B) the objectives of the program are to halt the decline of the UCH and to achieve a sex and age structure that will sustain the population; the goal of this program is to reduce the number of wolves in a specified control area that is actively used by caribou for calving; the control area will be defined annually by the department based on the distribution of calving; the control area includes 800 square miles and includes approximately 50 percent of the lands within the Unimak Wolf Management Area; the department and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service are exploring the possibility of transplanting caribou bulls onto the island in order to improve the bull to cow ratio; wolf predation control is likely to be necessary in order to afford additional protection to these bulls and resulting calves;  
			(C) the commissioner may initiate the reduction of wolf numbers in the Unimak Wolf Management Area according to the following thresholds:  
				(i) the caribou population is below management objectives established by the board;  
				(ii) nutrition is not considered to be the primary factor limiting caribou population growth;  
				(iii) calf recruitment is an important factor limiting population growth and calf survival during the first four weeks of life is less than 50 percent;  
			(D) the commissioner may continue to reduce wolf numbers in the Unimak Wolf Management Area until the following thresholds can be met without the benefit of wolf reduction:  
				(i) the bull ratio can be sustained within management objectives and the fall calf ratio can be sustained above 25 calves per hundred cows;  
				(ii) the population can grow at a sustained rate of five percent annually;  
				(iii) harvest objectives can be met;  
			(E) the commissioner will suspend the wolf reduction program if the following conditions are observed pending further review by the board to determine if the program can be modified to achieve the objectives of this program before reinstating the program, except that hunting and trapping by the public specified in other sections of this title may continue and are not subject to this subparagraph:  
				(i) caribou nutritional indices such as pregnancy rates, calf and adult body mass, or other condition indices exhibit a declining trend from current values and the bull ratio is greater than 20 bulls: 100 cows;  
				(ii) fall caribou calf ratios remain below 20 calves per 100 cows for three consecutive years of wolf removal from the Unimak Wolf Management Area;  
				(iii) the bull ratio remains below the caribou population objectives and does not increase for three consecutive years of wolf removal from the Unimak Wolf Management Area;  
				(iv) the wolf population is reduced to two breeding pairs;  
			(F) the wolf population objective for the Unimak Wolf Management Area is to reduce wolf numbers in the control area on Unimak Island in Unit 10 to the wolf population objective while maintaining at least two breeding pairs; wolves will not be removed from the 50 percent of the lands within the management area that are outside the boundaries of the control area to maintain the wolf population on Unimak Island; because wolves will not be removed from all lands within the management area, wolf movement from the mainland to Unimak Island has been observed, logistic limitations prohibit public access to the majority of lands within the management area, wolf  harvest by the public is low, and only wolves thought to be killing caribou calves will be removed, the viability of the wolf population on Unimak Island should not be affected by the management activities authorized by this plan; if the wolf population inadvertently declines to fewer than two breeding pairs, wolves may be translocated to the island from an adjacent population;  
			(G) reduction of predators by humans is necessary to stop the caribou population decline and to promote population recovery;  
			(H) reduction of wolf numbers in the prescribed control area is expected to increase caribou calf survival and recruitment and increase the caribou bull ratio to management objectives;  
			(I) reduction of bear numbers remains problematic due to the high density of brown bears in Unit 10, logistical limitations, and competing management priorities;  
		(5) the authorized methods and means used to take wolves are as follows:  
			(A) hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in treatment areas during the term of the management program may occur as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations set out elsewhere in this title;  
			(B) the commissioner may issue public aerial shooting permits, public land and shoot permits, or ground-based shooting permits, or allow agents of the state, or department employees to conduct aerial, land and shoot, or ground-based shooting as a method of wolf removal under AS 16.05.783, including the use of any type of aircraft;   
			(C)  the commissioner may authorize the use of state employees or agents or state owned, privately owned, or charter equipment, including helicopters, as a method of wolf removal under AS 16.05.783;  
		(6) the anticipated time frame and schedule for update and reevaluation are as follows:  
			(A) for up to 10 years beginning May 16, 2010, the commissioner may reduce the wolf populations in the Unimak Wolf Management Area;  
			(B) annually the department shall, to the extent practicable, provide to the board a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of caribou and wolf populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary to achieve the objectives of the plan;  
		(7) other specifications that the board considers necessary:  
			(A) the commissioner shall suspend wolf control activities  
				(i) when prey population management objectives are obtained;  
				(ii) predation management objectives are met;  
				(iii) upon expiration of the period during which the commissioner is authorized to reduce predator numbers in the predator control plan area;  
			(B) the commissioner shall annually close wolf hunting and trapping seasons as appropriate to ensure that the minimum wolf population objectives are met.  

Authorities

16.05.255;16.05.270;16.05.783;44.62.125

Notes

Authority

AS 16.05.255 AS 16.05.270 AS 16.05.783 Editor's note: As of Register 203 (October 2012), and acting under AS 44.62.125(b)(6), the regulations attorney made technical revisions to 5 AAC 92, replacing former 5 AAC 92.125 with smaller sections to facilitate printing of the regulations in the Alaska Administrative Code. As part of those revisions, material formerly set out in 5 AAC 92.125(k) and (l) was relocated to 5 AAC 92.112 without substantive change. The history note and authority citation for 5 AAC 92.112 carry forward the history of, and authority for, former 5 AAC 92.125.

History

Eff. 10/1/93, Register 127; am 8/18/95, Register 135; am 7/1/96, Register 138; add'l am 7/1/96, Register 138; am 7/27/97, Register 143; am 2/22/2000, Register 153; am 7/1/2000, Register 154; am 7/19/2000, Register 155; am 1/3/2001, Register 156; am 7/1/2001, Register 158; am 8/22/2001, Register 159; am 7/26/2003, Register 167; am 7/1/2004, Register 170; am 1/1/2005, Register 172; am 7/1/2005, Register 174; am 1/26/2006, Register 177; am 6/24/2006, Register 178; am 9/1/2006, Register 179; am 7/1/2007, Register 182; am 3/21/2008, Register 186; am 5/20/2008, Register 186; am 5/21/2009, Register 190; am 7/1/2009, Register 190; am 5/16/2010, Register 194; am 7/1/2010, Register 194; add'l am 7/1/2010, Register 194; am 12/15/2010, Register 196; am 1/29/2011, Register 197; am 5/14/2011, Register 198; am 7/1/2011, Register 198; am 3/24/2012, Register 201; am 4/1/2012, Register 201; am 7/1/2012, Register 202

References

5.92;5.92.125;5.92.112