Section 5.92.118. Intensive Management Plans IV.

	(a)  Plans established. Intensive management plans for the following areas are established in this section:  
		(1) Unit 15(A) Predation Control Area;  
		(2) Unit 15(C) Predation Control Area.  
	(b)   Unit 15(A) Predation Control Area. Notwithstanding any other provisions in this title, and based on the following information contained in this subsection, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in Unit 15(A):   
		(1) the Unit 15(A) Predation Control Area is established and consists of all lands within Unit 15(A) (1,314 square miles); non-federal lands identified for intensive management are approximately 83 square miles;  
		(2) the intensive management population and harvest objectives for moose in Unit 15(A) are 3,000 - 3,500 and 180 - 350 moose, respectively; the sustained yield of moose is currently below objectives; the goal is to reduce calf and adult mortality for reallocation of moose from wolves to harvest; a November 2011 survey estimated 60 - 62 wolves in Unit 15(A); wolf control objectives are to remove wolves from the population through trapping, hunting, and wolf control activities and retain at least 15 wolves in Unit 15(A); wolf surveys will be conducted as necessary to ensure that the population contains at least 15 wolves;  
		(3) the discussion of wildlife populations and human use information is as follows:  
			(A) the moose population and harvest information in Unit 15(A) is as follows:  
				(i) the moose population size in 2008 was estimated at 2,088 moose (95 percent confidence interval=264); the moose population is below intensive management objectives;  
				(ii) the average yearly harvest during the past decade (2001 - 2010) has been 140 moose; this is a lower harvest compared to the previous decade (1991 - 2000) where the average yearly harvest was 194 moose; the entire area is a nonsubsistence use area so there is no amount reasonably necessary for subsistence uses established under 5 AAC 99.025(8) for Unit 15(A);  
			(B) declining habitat quality is the main limiting factor affecting low moose densities in Unit 15(A); there has not been a fire of significant size in the unit for over 40 years; studies from 1987 - 1992 showed 96 percent of cows aged 2 - 15 were pregnant whereas 73 percent of cows in the same age group were pregnant in 2006; twinning rates calculated in 1983 in an area that burned in 1969 showed a 72 percent twinning rate whereas twinning rates calculated in the unit for 2011 were at 16 percent; the moose population appeared to be at or above carrying capacity in the early 1990s and declined at a rate of nine percent per year during the 1990s; research on calf mortality in the late 1970s in the unit showed 48 percent of calves dying from predation, six percent was caused by wolves, six percent was caused by brown bears, 34 percent was caused by black bears, and two percent by undetermined predation from wolves or bears before July 15th; while habitat is limiting, wolf predation has been shown to limit calf and adult moose survival in the unit; predation rates by these three primary predators may have changed due to changes in prey availability; however, all three predator species are still relatively abundant in the unit; over the last decade highway vehicle collisions (41 percent cows, 51 percent calves, average 85 per year) represented approximately 38 percent of human caused mortality of moose in the unit;  
			(C) with limited habitat this action is not intended to make significant progress toward the intensive management population objective, rather reducing predation will allow for possible reallocation of moose from predators to harvest; the program will initially focus on wolves due to potential effectiveness of aerial wolf control; additional black bear take will be considered if additional improvements in calf survival and recruitment are needed to meet harvest objectives;  
			(D) the wolf harvest over the past decade in Unit 15(A) has ranged between 4 - 16 wolves taken each year with a mean of 11 wolves; the pre-winter wolf population was estimated at 60 - 62 wolves in November 2011; the harvest has been inadequate to reduce wolf numbers considering yearly growth; assuming a pre-winter population of 60 - 62 wolves, the wolf harvest would likely need to be 45 - 47 wolves from all methods including trapping, hunting, and wolf control, to reduce the wolf population and result in a reduction in predation rates on moose; the hunting season and bag limit for wolves has remained unchanged since 1989 but the bag limit on the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, which was limited to two wolves per year on the refuge, was liberalized to five wolves per year in 2011; the trapping season and bag limits have been the same since 1997; additional active management methods are necessary to reduce the wolf population;  
			(E) approximately 79 percent of Unit 15(A) is federal land, 18 percent is private land, and three percent is state and borough land; wolf control will be initiated pending authorization by land managers and owners;  
		(4) The board requests that the commissioner work cooperatively with the Department of Natural Resources and area landowners, and especially the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, to achieve habitat improvement through burning, timber harvest, and other recognized and prudent active management techniques;  
		(5) the authorized methods and means used to take wolves include hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in Unit 15(A) during the term of the management program as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations; the commissioner may use department employed or contracted wolf trappers, operating during the established wolf trapping season and using legal trapping techniques, issue public aerial shooting permits, public land and shoot permits, allow agents of the state, or department employees to conduct aerial, land and shoot, or ground-based shooting as a method of wolf removal under AS 16.05.783, including the use of any type of aircraft; prey harvest may include bull-only harvests with variable combinations of antler restrictions, any-bull hunts, and antlerless harvest; factors described in (3) of this subsection and other considerations unique to the situation indicate that aerial shooting of wolves by department employees is the desired option to reduce predation in the management area described in (1) of this subsection to a level sufficient to improve survival of moose and the potential for population growth;  
		(6) the anticipated time frame, schedule for update and reevaluation and conditions for termination of the plan are as follows:  
			(A) this plan is in effect for approximately five years from March 24, 2012 through June 30, 2017 unless renewed;  
			(B) annually the department shall, to the extent practicable, provide to the board a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of the moose and wolf populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary to achieve the objectives of the plan;  
			(C) predator control activities shall be terminated;  
				(i) when the upper levels of intensive management objectives for the moose population size and harvest are exceeded; or  
				(ii) upon expiration of the period during which the commissioner is authorized to reduce predator numbers in the predator control plan area;  
		(7) the program will be suspended if one of the following conditions are met:  
			(A) if there is no detectable increase in calf-to-cow ratios after three years of predation control, indicating that there is no significant improvement in calf survival;  
			(B) if, after three years, any measure consistent with significant levels of nutritional stress are identified;  
			(C) annually, if the wolf population falls below 15 wolves at any time estimated from one or more of the following techniques:  
				(i) population survey;  
				(ii) population census;  
				(iii) modeling;  
				(iv) harvest;  
				(v) pilot and trapper interviews;  
			(D) the commissioner shall annually close wolf hunting and trapping seasons as appropriate to ensure that the minimum wolf population objectives are met.  
	(c)  Unit 15(C) Predation Control Area. Notwithstanding any other provisions in this title, and based on the following information contained in this subsection, the commissioner or the commissioner's designee may conduct a wolf population reduction or wolf population regulation program in Unit 15(C):  
		(1) the Unit 15(C) Predation Control Area is established and consists of all lands within Unit 15(C) north of Kachemak Bay including the Fox River Flats (1,171 square miles); state and private lands are approximately 865 square miles;  
		(2) the intensive management population and harvest objectives for moose in Unit 15(C) are 2,500 - 3,500 and 200 - 350 moose, respectively; while the past harvest has been within intensive management objectives, the goal is to reverse the long-term decline of the bull-to-cow ratio through changes in bull harvest strategy and reduced calf mortality; with improved calf survival, the sustained yield would be within harvest objectives; three major predators, brown bears, black bears and wolves occur in the unit; reducing wolves will be the initial focus; with the wolf population likely numbering between 44 - 52 wolves, wolf control objectives will be to remove wolves from the population through trapping, hunting, and wolf control activities but retain at least 15 wolves; wolf surveys will be conducted to determine the current wolf population size and the level of take that will ensure the minimum population objective is met;  
		(3) the discussion of wildlife populations and human use information is as follows:  
			(A) the moose population and harvest information in Unit 15(C) is as follows:  
				(i) the moose population size in 2010 was estimated at 2,919 moose (95 percent confidence interval=277); the moose population is currently within intensive management objectives for population size;  
				(ii) to address low bull-to-cow ratios, the board reduced the bag limit for moose and the preliminary 2011 harvest is 29 cows and only 12 bulls; the average yearly harvest during the past decade (2001 - 2010) has been 275 moose, compared to the average yearly harvest of 260 moose the previous decade (1991 - 2000); the harvest has been within intensive management objectives and generally higher than harvest from the 1980s but harvest restrictions adopted by the board in 2011 will reduce the harvest below intensive management objectives in 2011 and in 2012; the proposed intensive management area is a nonsubsistence area and there is no amount reasonably necessary for subsistence uses established under 5 AAC 99.025(8);  
			(B) the moose population in 2011 showed a 30 percent twinning rate and does not appear greatly limited by habitat; fall surveys in 2011 showed 21 calves per 100 cows; assuming a standard calving rate of 80 percent with 30 percent twins, spring 2011 calf production may have yielded 104 calves per 100 cows with 83 calves per 100 cows assumed lost from approximately June to November likely due to predation; over the last decade highway vehicle collisions averaged 63 per year (41 percent cows, 51 percent calves) which represented approximately 21 percent of human caused mortality of moose in the unit;  
			(C) a reduction of predation can reasonably be expected to aid in meeting the intensive management harvest objectives at a higher level than has previously been achieved through both bull and antlerless harvest;  
			(D) the wolf harvest over the past decade in Unit 15(C) has ranged between 10 - 21 wolves taken each year with a mean of 14 wolves; the wolf population in Unit 15(C) was surveyed in 2011 and is likely stable between 44 - 52 wolves; the hunting season and bag limit for wolves has remained unchanged since 1989, except for the bag limit on the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge which was increased from two wolves per year to five wolves per year in 2011; the trapping season and bag limits have been the same since 1997; additional active management methods are necessary to reduce the wolf population to the desired objective;  
			(E) approximately 25 percent of the portion of Unit 15(C) described in (1) of this subsection is national wildlife refuge, 40 percent is private land, and 35 percent is state and borough land; wolf control will be initiated pending authorization by land managers or private land owners;  
			(F) current moose harvest levels are well below intensive management objectives; future harvests are expected to remain below objectives without a combination of solutions including wolf predation control and changes to moose harvest strategies;  
		(4) the authorized methods and means used to take wolves include hunting and trapping of wolves by the public in Unit 15(C) during the term of the management program as provided in the hunting and trapping regulations; the commissioner may use department employed or contracted wolf trappers, operating during the established wolf trapping season and using legal trapping techniques, issue public aerial shooting permits, public land and shoot permits, allow agents of the state, or department employees to conduct aerial, land and shoot, or ground-based shooting as a method of wolf removal under AS 16.05.783, including the use of any type of aircraft; prey harvest may include bull-only harvests with variable combinations of antler restrictions, any-bull hunts, or antlerless harvest; factors described in (3) of this subsection and other considerations unique to the situation indicate that aerial shooting of wolves by members of the public under permit is the desired option to reduce predation in the management area described in (1) of this subsection to a level sufficient to improve survival of moose and the potential for population growth; based on measured response of biological parameters, additional airborne shooting of wolves by the department may be necessary to reach the upper levels of intensive management objectives for harvest;  
		(5) the anticipated time frame, schedule for update and reevaluation and conditions for termination of the plan are as follows:  
			(A) this plan is in effect for approximately five years from March 24, 2012 through June 30, 2017 unless renewed;  
			(B) annually the department shall, to the extent practicable, provide to the board a report of program activities conducted during the preceding 12 months, including implementation activities, the status of the moose and wolf populations, and recommendations for changes, if necessary to achieve the objectives of the plan;  
			(C) predator control activities shall be terminated  
				(i) when the upper levels of intensive management objectives for the moose population size and harvest are exceeded; or  
				(ii) upon expiration of the period during which the commissioner is authorized to reduce predator numbers in the predator control plan area;  
		(6) the program will be reviewed and suspended if one of the following conditions are met:  
			(A) if the moose population exceeds 3.0 moose per square mile;  
			(B) if after three years, any measure consistent with significant levels of nutritional stress are identified;  
			(C) annually if the wolf population falls below 15 wolves at any time as estimated from one or more of the following techniques: population survey, population census, modeling, harvest, pilot and trapper interviews;  
				(i) population survey;  
				(ii) population census;  
				(iii) modeling;  
				(iv) harvest;  
				(v) pilot and trapper interviews;  
			(D) the commissioner shall annually close wolf hunting and trapping seasons as appropriate to ensure that the minimum wolf population objectives are met.  

Authorities

16.05.255;16.05.270;16.05.783;44.62

Notes

Reference

5 AAC 92.080

Authority

AS 16.05.255 AS 16.05.270 AS 16.05.783 Editor's note: As of Register 203 (October 2012), and acting under AS 44.62. 125(b)(6), the regulations attorney made technical revisions to 5 AAC 92, replacing former 5 AAC 92.125 with smaller sections to facilitate printing of the regulations in the Alaska Administrative Code. As part of those revisions, material formerly set out in 5 AAC 92.125(p) and (q) was relocated to 5 AAC 92.118 without substantive change. The history note and authority citation for 5 AAC 92.118 carry forward the history of, and authority for, former 5 AAC 92.125.

History

Eff. 10/1/93, Register 127; am 8/18/95, Register 135; am 7/1/96, Register 138; add'l am 7/1/96, Register 138; am 7/27/97, Register 143; am 2/22/2000, Register 153; am 7/1/2000, Register 154; am 7/19/2000, Register 155; am 1/3/2001, Register 156; am 7/1/2001, Register 158; am 8/22/2001, Register 159; am 7/26/2003, Register 167; am 7/1/2004, Register 170; am 1/1/2005, Register 172; am 7/1/2005, Register 174; am 1/26/2006, Register 177; am 6/24/2006, Register 178; am 9/1/2006, Register 179; am 7/1/2007, Register 182; am 3/21/2008, Register 186; am 5/20/2008, Register 186; am 5/21/2009, Register 190; am 7/1/2009, Register 190; am 5/16/2010, Register 194; am 7/1/2010, Register 194; add'l am 7/1/2010, Register 194; am 12/15/2010, Register 196; am 1/29/2011, Register 197; am 5/14/2011, Register 198; am 7/1/2011, Register 198; am 3/24/2012, Register 201; am 4/1/2012, Register 201; am 7/1/2012, Register 202; am 7/1/2013, Register 206

References

5.92;5.92.125;5.92.118